This page acts as a hub for navigating the GLA's range of published demographic projections. Links to datasets and release dates will be added as they become available.
The Demography team within the GLA maintains a number of sets of demographic projections. These sets cover different geographies, development assumptions, and output groupings. Most sets are updated annually, incorporating the latest data as it becomes available.
2013 Round Projections:
2013 Round Population and Household Projections
2012 Round Projections:
2012 Round Borough Ethnic Group Projections (SHLAA) - final
2012 Round Borough Ethnic Group Projections (trend-based) - final
2001-2011 household estimates backseries
2012 Round Ward 5 year age bands (SHLAA) - incorporating DCLG 2011 household formation rates
2012 Round Borough Single Year of Age (SHLAA) - incorporating DCLG 2011 household formation rates
2012 Round Ethnic Group Projections (SHLAA) - interim
2012 Round Ethnic Group Projections (trend-based) - interim
2012 Round Ward 5 year age bands - standard projection (SHLAA)
2012 Round Ward 5 year age bands - variant projection (SHLAA/trend)
2012 Round Borough Single Year of Age (SHLAA)
2012 Round Borough Single Year of Age (trend-based)
2012 Round Borough SYA (zero development)
Update 13-2013 details the methodology and results of the 2012 final ethnic group population projections
Update 07-2013 details the methodology and results of the 2012 interim ethnic group population projections
Update 05-2013 details the methodology and data used for the 2012 round SHLAA and trend-based projections
2011 Round Projections:
2011 Round borough SYA - standard fertility (SHLAA) *Updated 20/04/2012
2011 Round borough SYA - high fertility (SHLAA) *Updated 20/04/2012
2011 Round ward 5 year age bands - standard fertility (SHLAA) *Updated 20/04/2012
2011 Round ward 5 year age bands - high fertility (SHLAA) *Updated 20/04/2012
2011 Round household - standard fertility (SHLAA) *Updated 20/04/2012
2011 Round household - high fertility (SHLAA) *Updated 20/04/12
2011 Round borough ethnic group - standard fertility (SHLAA) *Updated 12/06/2012
2011 Round borough ethnic group - high fertility (SHLAA)
Technical note to accompany the 2011 round borough population projections.
2010 Round Projections:
2010 Round borough SYA (SHLAA)*Updated 07/02/2011
2010 Round ward 5 year age bands (SHLAA)
2010 Round household (SHLAA)
2010 Round borough ethnic group (SHLAA)
2010 Round borough economically active population (SHLAA) *Updated 07/02/2011
Update relating to the 2010 round of SHLAA based projections
Update summarising the GLA 2010 Round Ethnic Group Population Projections using the SHLAA
2009 Round Projections:
2009 Round borough SYA (SHLAA)
2009 Round borough SYA (London Plan development trajectory)
2009 Round ward 5 year age bands
2009 Round ward 5 year age bands (London Plan development trajectory)
2009 Round borough ethnic group (SHLAA)
2009 Round borough ethnic group (London Plan development trajectory)
2009 Round borough economically active population (SHLAA)
2009 Round borough economically active population (London Plan development trajectory)
Update relating to the 2009 round of London Plan projections
Custom tools:
The custom age tables enable users to easily query the single year of age raw data so that any age range can quickly be calculated.
Custom age tool for borough, ward and ethnic group projections
Notes:
The GLA produces several projection variants using different housing trajectory assumptions. Published here are projections that use either the London Plan housing targets or development trajectories based on the 2009 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) - see here for more information. Updated SHLAA-based projections are produced annually.
Ward projections do not include City of London. Data for City can be found in the borough projections.
Additional projections are produced using each borough's own housing trajectory and provided to the local authority directly.
For more information, contact demography@london.gov.uk
