Current Issues Note 40: Performance of GLA Economics' employment projections

•GLA Economics has produced long-run projections of London’s employment since 2002. These projections are trend based and set out the long run path of employment considered most likely based on the historic data available at the time of construction. These are used within the GLA for planning to provide capacity to accommodate the longer-terms needs of the London economy. Given their importance to GLA policy planning, this note looks at how the GLA Economics’ employment projections have performed since 2002 and how this compares to projections from some other respected organisations.

LET Screenshot

•Although GLA Economics’ employment projections are consistently below outturn, much of this is the result of upward revisions to historic employment data (which underpin the projections model). Further, the projections perform relatively well when looking at the projected annual growth rate and average annual error in relation to outturn, with the accuracy of the projections generally improving the longer the time period over which the estimates are analysed.

IMAGE ALT TEXT HERE

•The revisions to historic employment data also drive much of the variability in the GLA Economics’ employment projections numbers over time. However, and by design, the revised projections are relatively consistent over time and average revisions between iterations in GLA Economics employment projections are relatively small.

Data and Resources

Additional Info

Field Value
bounding_box
conformity
conformity_degree
created_date
dp_created 2014-10-01T21:06:59
dp_modified 2014-10-01T21:06:59
email_notify_author true
email_notify_maintainer true
license_text
lineage
or_author
or_distributor
or_originator
or_owner
or_point_of_contact
or_principal_investigator
or_processor
or_publisher
or_resource_provider
or_responsible_party_role
or_user
revision_date
smallest_geography
spatial_resolution
spatial_resource_language
spatial_resource_type
temporal_coverage_from 06/10/2014
temporal_coverage_to 06/10/2014
topic_category
update_frequency Ad hoc